Multipurpose Model Enhances Forecasting Across Epidemics, Energy, and Economics

A new machine learning (ML) model from Georgia Tech could protect communities from diseases, better manage electricity consumption in cities, and promote business growth, all at the same time.

Researchers from the School of Computational Science and Engineering (CSE) created the Large Pre-Trained Time-Series Model (LPTM) framework. LPTM is a single foundational model that completes forecasting tasks across a broad range of domains. 

Along with performing as well or better than models purpose-built for their applications, LPTM requires 40% less data and 50% less training time than current baselines. In some cases, LPTM can be deployed without any training data.

The key to LPTM is that it is pre-trained on datasets from different industries like healthcare, transportation, and energy. The Georgia Tech group created an adaptive segmentation module to make effective use of these vastly different datasets.

The Georgia Tech researchers will present LPTM in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, at the 2024 Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2024). NeurIPS is one of the world’s most prestigious conferences on artificial intelligence (AI) and ML research.

“The foundational model paradigm started with text and image, but people haven’t explored time-series tasks yet because those were considered too diverse across domains,” said B. Aditya Prakash, one of LPTM’s developers. 

“Our work is a pioneer in this new area of exploration where only few attempts have been made so far.”

[MICROSITE: Georgia Tech at NeurIPS 2024]

Foundational models are trained with data from different fields, making them powerful tools when assigned tasks. Foundational models drive GPT, DALL-E, and other popular generative AI platforms used today. LPTM is different though because it is geared toward time-series, not text and image generation.  

The Georgia Tech researchers trained LPTM on data ranging from epidemics, macroeconomics, power consumption, traffic and transportation, stock markets, and human motion and behavioral datasets.

After training, the group pitted LPTM against 17 other models to make forecasts as close to nine real-case benchmarks. LPTM performed the best on five datasets and placed second on the other four.

The nine benchmarks contained data from real-world collections. These included the spread of influenza in the U.S. and Japan, electricity, traffic, and taxi demand in New York, and financial markets.   

The competitor models were purpose-built for their fields. While each model performed well on one or two benchmarks closest to its designed purpose, the models ranked in the middle or bottom on others.

In another experiment, the Georgia Tech group tested LPTM against seven baseline models on the same nine benchmarks in a zero-shot forecasting tasks. Zero-shot means the model is used out of the box and not given any specific guidance during training. LPTM outperformed every model across all benchmarks in this trial.

LPTM performed consistently as a top-runner on all nine benchmarks, demonstrating the model’s potential to achieve superior forecasting results across multiple applications with less and resources.

“Our model also goes beyond forecasting and helps accomplish other tasks,” said Prakash, an associate professor in the School of CSE. 

“Classification is a useful time-series task that allows us to understand the nature of the time-series and label whether that time-series is something we understand or is new.”

One reason traditional models are custom-built to their purpose is that fields differ in reporting frequency and trends. 

For example, epidemic data is often reported weekly and goes through seasonal peaks with occasional outbreaks. Economic data is captured quarterly and typically remains consistent and monotone over time. 

LPTM’s adaptive segmentation module allows it to overcome these timing differences across datasets. When LPTM receives a dataset, the module breaks data into segments of different sizes. Then, it scores all possible ways to segment data and chooses the easiest segment from which to learn useful patterns.

LPTM’s performance, enhanced through the innovation of adaptive segmentation, earned the model acceptance to NeurIPS 2024 for presentation. NeurIPS is one of three primary international conferences on high-impact research in AI and ML. NeurIPS 2024 occurs Dec. 10-15.

Ph.D. student Harshavardhan Kamarthi partnered with Prakash, his advisor, on LPTM. The duo are among the 162 Georgia Tech researchers presenting over 80 papers at the conference. 

Prakash is one of 46 Georgia Tech faculty with research accepted at NeurIPS 2024. Nine School of CSE faculty members, nearly one-third of the body, are authors or co-authors of 17 papers accepted at the conference. 

Along with sharing their research at NeurIPS 2024, Prakash and Kamarthi released an open-source library of foundational time-series modules that data scientists can use in their applications.

“Given the interest in AI from all walks of life, including business, social, and research and development sectors, a lot of work has been done and thousands of strong papers are submitted to the main AI conferences,” Prakash said. 

“Acceptance of our paper speaks to the quality of the work and its potential to advance foundational methodology, and we hope to share that with a larger audience.”